The dynamics of population and economic growth in nigeria. Doc population dynamics and economic growth in nigeria. The oecd framework for monitoring progress towards green. This study examined the relationship between population growth, energy consumption and economic growth in nigeria using the autoregressive distributed lag ardl model for the period 1981 to 2015. This page provides the latest reported value for nigeria population plus previous releases, historical high and low, shortterm forecast and longterm. With this high growth rate and applying the double time growth analysis, nigerias population will be expected to have added 3,072,000 persons the 1st year of the estimate and almost 3,150,643 the second year based on double time population growth rate analysis. Dynamics of demographic structure and economic growth in nigeria. The process of population growth is exogenous in order to process income generation, accumulation, technical progress and institutional change srinivasan, 1987. Nigerias sustained high population growth rate will continue for the foreseeable future because of population momentum and its high birth rate.
Get free research paper on impact of population growth on unemployment in nigeria. Population and economic growth in developing countries minh quang dao professor of economics, eastern illinois university, 600 e. Even now, the high population growth has led to a problem for every economic programme in nigeria. Nigeria the human capital index hci database provides data at the country level for each of the components of the human capital index as well as for the overall index, disaggregated by gender. This study is designed to investigate on the impact of unemployment on the economic. Nigeria has one of the largest populations of youth in the world.
Motivated by this controversial, this study examined the impact of inflation on economic growth and established the existence of inflation growth relationship. Causes of overpopulation in nigeria and its consequences. A population growth rate of more than 3% and increasing poverty especially in. Pdf population growth and economic growth in nigeria. The relationship between population growth and economic development has been the main concern in the recent decade. Economic growth in nigeria has largely been accounted for by resilient agricultural growth associated with performance in four constituent subsectors. The index measures the amount of human capital that a child born today can expect to attain by age 18, given the risks of poor health and poor. Inthe countries in the midst of demographic transit ion and with. Demographic statistics, 4 united nations statistical division. The expansion is related to population growth and to demand for economic growth and higher standards of living, despite some economies in energy use per unit gnp.
The time frame is selected base on the need to focus on the recent development in the nigeria. The nigerian economy is one of the largest in africa. Impact of population growth on nigeria economic growth. Nigerian population growth and its implications for economic development. Munich personal repec archive the role of population on economic growth and development. Pdf studies that seek to explain the relationship between population growth and economic growth in nigeria are at the moment very scanty.
World population asdf department of economic and social. According to the research, by the end of 2018, the population of nigeria will increase to 199,805,437 people. Nigerias federated structure gives significant autonomy to states. To the greek philosophers, about 2,500 years ago, population growth was undesirable as it adversely affects economic development. Nigeria has maintained remarkable growth over the last decade, recording an average growth rate of 6.
Determinants of economic growth in nigeria kazeem b. Among many others, censuses were taken and restricted to only. With approximately 184 million inhabitants, nigeria is the most populous country in africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. The result revealed that there is a positive relationship between economic growth proxied by gdp growth and population, fertility and export growth.
The total population in nigeria was estimated at 200. Secondary data were sourced from the central bank of nigeria, international monetary fund and the federal office of statistics. The importance, how to, effect causes relationship, comparison, history, role, solutions are discussed. This study investigated the causal relationship between these. Executive summary emerging from a recession with major currency depreciation and high inflation in 2016 the pace of economic growth in nigeria 1. Impact of human capital development on economic growth. Furthermore, it may be interesting to note that nigerias population level is at 177 million people as at 2014 and having a growth rate of about 2% per annum. The nigerian government has been doing its best to help curb a rapid growth in population. Nigeria, with a population of about 120 million people, constitutes nearly a quarter of the total population of subsaharan africa. Nigeria continued to be affected by three ongoing conflicts. However, this study shall look at both the impact of human capital and health on economic growth in nigeria. Nigeria population 19602019 data 20202022 forecast. If not checked, this duo tyrant can pose devastating effects on the nations future economy.
While evidence in the literature tilted to the negative effect. Between 2000 and 2014, nigerias gross domestic product gdp grew at an average rate of 7% per year. Pdf this research explores the effect of population growth on the economic growth of nigeria over the period of 1981 to 2015. Looking back, in the year of 1960, nigeria had a population of 45. Oil price volatility continues to influence nigerias growth performance. Nigerian population growth and its implications for. Data on gdp and exchange rate were obtained from central bank of nigeria. Oecd green growth studies energy oecd green growth studies. Because this led to a great influx of rural people into the larger urban centres. The results further showed that aged population has a negative impact on economic growth while children population as well as labour force.
The major contributors to nigerias population growth are early marriages, high birth rates, and a lack of family planning access. While accompanied by greater prosperity, rising demand creates new challenges. The impact of unemployment on economic growth in nigeria pdf. The paper examined the relationship between demographic change and economic growth in nigeria. This paper examines the economic effects of the demographic transition in developing countries. A large part of west african economic activity is concentrated in nigeria. Nigerias persistent poverty levels amid economic growth figure 1 confound a common theory that poverty reduction and economic growth are positively related. Demographers estimated the population to be 91,178,000 in 1985. With this, it is strikingly revealing that we record birth rates of at least 3. Since we are working on the impact of population growth on nigeria, as whose population according the 2006 census was estimated to be at a growth rate of 3%, our limitation of this study would be on the nigeria gdp gross domestic product or gni gross national product versus the population growth rate of nigeria noko, 2016.
The effects of population growth in nigeria request pdf. This research work critically analyses the economic relationship between population dynamics and economic growth in nigeria between 1970 and 2011. Nigerias population is projected to grow from more than 186 million people in 2016 to 392 million in 2050, becoming the worlds fourth most populous country. Ajide1 this paper investigates the role of frazer economic freedom index on fdigrowth relationship over the period spanning 1980 through 2010 using annual time series data. Since the late 1960s it has been based primarily on the petroleum industry. As nigerias gross domestic product gdp per capita grew by nearly 70% between 19922009, poverty rates fell by 6%. Pdf effect of population growth on economic development. The purpose of this study was to examine the economic implica tions of a rapid population growth on nigerias economic development. The consequences of rapid population growth on nigerias.
Population growth and economic development in bangladesh. In nigeria the claim is often made that development policy must be directed at three fundamental objectives. A series of world oil price increases from 1973 produced rapid economic growth in transportation, construction, manufacturing, and government services. The impact of unemployment on economic growth in nigerian. The role of population on economic growth and development. Population growth and economic development in nigeria. The population of nigeria is growing at a rate of 3. We quantify the economic growth opportunity created by nigerias demographic transition and make policy recommendations on how to realize this growth. Population growth plays a conflicting role in the development process of a country. Nigerias population projected to double by 2050 voice. With a growing population, investment in education is also identified as particularly significant for driving nigerias economic growth in the longterm, as it could help address issued of employability and shift the countrys working population from less productive to more productive economic sectors. Population growth may become a severe problem for a country, which has a lack of natural resources to cater to the needs of its inhabitants.
The resources in nigeria are limited, and it seems that this country will continue to be resource oriented for a long time. Does population change matter for long run economic growth in. This page provides nigeria gdp annual growth rate actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic. Census bureau says that at that rate, there will be an estimated. Conceptual literature on poverty and economic growth in nigeria poverty alleviation is a task for economic policy and, to reach the poor effectively, antipoverty programs are vital. This study investigated the causal relationship between these aforementioned variables i. Nigeria is one of the most densely populated countries in africa, with approximately 200 million people in an area of 920,000 km 2 360,000 sq mi, and is also the country with the largest population in africa and the seventh largest population in the world approximately 50% of nigerians are urban dwellers, with the rate of urbanization being estimated at 4. Timeseries data for the period 1990 2011 were used to examine the impact of inflation on economic growth. Nigeria has the largest population in africa, and it is growing at 3.
Forecast error variance decomposition revealed that population growth played significant role in the growth of nigerian. Eventually, nigeria will need to transform its economy from exporting its. Studies that seek to explain the relationship between population growth and economic growth in nigeria are at the moment very scanty. Creating investment incentives in nigeria 77 box 4. The birth rate in nigeria is about 37 births per 1,000 people. Crossborder activities closely link southern niger to the hausa. Therefore this study seeks to investigate the impact of population growth on unemployment in nigeria.
Even though population density is high 288 people square mile. This research explores the effect of population growth on the economic growth of nigeria over the period of 1981 to 2015. Population 158 million capital abuja land area 923 768 km2 independence 1 october 1960. This study investigated the relationship between population dynamics and economic growth in nigeria using time series data spanning from 1970 to 2014. Agricultural production and economic growth in nigeria. A multivariate regression approach was employed to. It helps economic development and it retards economic development. Impact of population growth on economic growth in nigeria 1980.
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